The Economics of Settlers of Catan

By Jake Williams


   
Before we can discuss this further there are some things that have to be assumed.  Any resource mentioned is assumed to be on an ideal number.  Obviously, bad numbers on a certain hex will depreciate its value, but for the purposes of good analysis we have to use optimal conditions.  This also discounts any particular strategy that is dependent on board set up (i.e. building to a port when you have red numbers to a resource that the port trades favorably for).  The main two factors that go into this commentary are supply (the number of hex tiles available) and demand (the amount of a resource needed to build a structure).

This is my ranking of the resources in order of best to worse:

1. Ore
2. Wheat
3. Brick
4. Wood
5. Wool

Ore

A lot of people initially disagree with me when I tell them that Ore is the most important resource in the game.  The majority of these players tend to be new or have never looked closer at the board.  Ore only has 3 hexes.  Automatically this takes away the amount of possible places to produce Ore.  In layman’s terms the supply is low.
People that disagree with this quickly counter with “Well, Brick only has 3 hexes as well, and you need it more in the start of the game.”  This is flawed.  First of all, if you buy into this logic you are missing the other part of the logic that makes Ore more valuable than Brick, demand.  Every structure that requires Brick only requires 1 resource card.  The amount of structures that require either resource is the same (2) so that’s a wash.  But look at the Ore required to build its structures.  A City requires 3 Ore cards, and a Development Card requires 1.  Cities require 3 times as much Ore as a Settlement requires Brick.  This is a huge demand.
Let’s look at the strategic value of Ore over Brick, and the argument that Brick is better at the start of the game.  A City increases you production on your resource tiles.  Card advantage (having more cards in your hand than anyone else) is the key to winning.  Also, City is worth more points than a Settlement, and you don’t have to build a road to build a City (it is worth noting that by saying this I must concede that the effect cost of a Settlement now becomes 3 Wood, 3 Brick, 1 Wheat, and 1 Wool).
A beginning game value of Brick over Ore is skewed and will cause you to lose games if you aren’t careful.  At the end of the day you cannot possibly win a game with only the structures Brick can produce.  You will cap out at 7 points (5 Settlements and Longest Road).  However, you can win with only structures that can be built with Ore (2 Cities, Largest Army, and VPs via Development Cards).

Wheat

   It was tough decision ranking Wheat over Brick.  Brick certainly has the supply factor over Wheat.  One of the things that made me rank it above the other is usefulness.  3 out of the 4 structures require at least 1 Wheat, and of these 3 structures all over them are capable of producing VPs that aren’t transient.  This segways to the demand section.  Cities, which are the game ending structures, require twice the amount of Wheat that Brick needs to build a Settlement.  It could be argued that the effect cost of a City versus a Settlement slightly favors Brick because while 3 of each resource card is needed for either, there are only 3 Brick hexes.  I’m not sure if the usefulness of Wheat quite out weighs that fact, but again this was a hard ranking. But at the end of the day, you can win the game with the structures that Wheat can build whereas you’ll always cap out at 7 VPs with ones that require Brick.

Brick

   I think we’ve examined Brick enough by now to know its importance and why it ranks third.  Brick places higher over Wood simply because there are less hex tiles producing Brick over Wood.  Both resources are needed for all the structures they can build.  All other things being equal, Brick wins over Wood!

Wood

   Wood ranks near the bottom, but don’t let that take away from its role in the game.  It’s need in half of the structures, and you’ll go no where fast if you don’t have it. 

Wool

   Wool took a back seat to Wood simply because of effective costs.  All structures Wool can build effectively cost 1 Wool.  Settlements effectively cost you 3 Wood, but a Road is only 1 Wood.  Supply is both equal for the two resources. Note that you can win the game solely on structures Wool can build (This is highly improbable though, but you could get both Road Building cards and get Longest Road with 5 links.  So your score would look like: 2 Settlements, Longest Road, Largest Army, and 4 VPs in Development Cards).  I had to remove that scenario from my ranking because of its improbability.